Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

November 30

Week 13 Scouting Notebook -- Weather only partly to blame for low scoring in NFL

11:29 PM Sun, Nov 30, 2008 | |
By Mike McDermott    Email

By Michael Salfino

Points were generally scarce in Week 13, with 14 teams scoring 17 points or fewer heading into Sunday night's Bears-Vikings contest.

While some will blame the generally inclement weather, there were other factors in play as the defenses had a clear upper hand irrespective of the gray skies and windswept rain.

Converting on the goal line was trouble. Even the Colts shut out on fourth and inches on the doorstep when a Peyton Manning sneak ended with a fumble. Manning had been 4 for 5 throwing on fourth and less than two yards. I'd take my chances with the ball in his hand as a thrower, not a runner.

Indy tried to spread the Browns out with three wide receivers, but Cleveland didn't bite. The sneak wasn't there. Manning then brought Reggie Wayne in motion, but that dragged another defender into the box when Wayne settled as a wingman. Manning should have audibled into a pass or called a timeout. Even the great ones can make mistakes when the bullets are flying and the play clock is winding down.

Teams need to run out of pass looks on the goal line and pass out of run looks. But they can't telegraph it by switching receivers for blockers - like the Eagles did in Week 12 to set up Ed Reed's record-setting interception return.

The other thing losing teams that struggled to score did poorly in Week 13 was spread out defenses in between the 20s. The Jets are run-happy now with Thomas Jones, but Jones is not a skilled receiver. Leon Washington is the player who you need to exploit linebackers in coverage. By the time the Jets began deploying Washington (3 catches, 60 yard) as a receiver, it was too late.

Denver, conversely, did a great job utilizing slot receivers against the Jets' 3-4 defense. The outside guys were not a factor other than on a busted play that led to a long Eddie Royal score. But the tight ends (13 catches, 149 yards, combined) especially killed the Jets, and slot-man Brandon Stokley finished off New York with the 39-yard scoring dagger.

The 3-4 defense teams, like the Jets, typically struggle covering interior guys because that responsibility falls to DE/OLB hybrids primarily built to rush the passer and hold up in run defense.

Denver's passing formations spread out the defense and created natural, wide running lanes for converted fullback Peyton Hillis (129 yards and a TD).

It's untrue that the Patriots have stopped throwing intermediate passes with Matt Cassel. In fact, their 22.5-percent rate (through Week 12) of attempting passes 11 to 20 yards from scrimmage is slightly over NFL average. That's also higher than the percentage of intermediate passes the Patriots attempted in their record-setting 2007 season. New England's problem is that Cassel can't connect on these throws: a 70 QB rating even before the Steelers whipped him.

Cassel backers take heart: no first-time starting QB passes every test. The Steelers' pass defense is supercharged right now, led by Troy Polamalu, who seems to be deploying clones when he routinely threatens blitz by stepping into the line and then fires out to break up or even pick off deep throws.

Stunning stat of the week: Entering Week 13, teams threw 11 passes in the direction of Raiders cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha. That's not just completions, but all passes. And THAT is a shutdown cornerback.

The Giants shocked me by coming out firing in Plaxico Burress' absence at Washington. No Plax means eight- and nine-man fronts because there's no receiver defenses fear enough to double cover. The game film from Sunday will give future opponents second thoughts, though, because while they may not fear any Giants target, they should fear Eli Manning.

On the other side of the field, Jason Campbell can't get anything going against single coverage and thus runs his backs right into those eight-man fronts. The 'Skins move the pile well enough, but there's no explosion and thus little scoring.

Nice to see Donovan McNabb rebound with such a good game. I was surprised he had another chance after the undeserved benching. Everyone slumps and McNabb is a borderline Hall of Famer. He's going to be Philadelphia's Patrick Ewing. Eagles fans will miss him when he's gone because odds are they'll have one of the 15 or so starting QBs who can't really play. Look at Detroit, which has been looking for a quarterback since Bobby Layne.

Looking ahead to Monday night, Kevin Walter is feasting due to double coverage teams dedicate to Andre Johnson. Unfortunately for Johnson owners, you don't get points for that.

The Texans get their big runs out of the wing formation -- running weak (away from the two-TE side). You have four blockers on four defenders on that weak side. Without formation tricks like this, it's impossible to get blockers one-on-one against defenders, because the QB is useless on running plays. That's why the Wildcat offense has been such a big deal this year - it makes everyone a threat in the running game.

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November 29

Matchup Meter -- Final player rankings for NFL Week 13

3:21 PM Sat, Nov 29, 2008 | |
By Mike McDermott    Email

By Chad F. Lawton

Following are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards).

Next Update: 12/3

* = check status

Quarterback
1. Peyton Manning, IND at CLE
NOTE: Here come the fun matchups.
2. Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. CAR
3. Philip Rivers, SD vs. ATL
4. Drew Brees, NO at TB
NOTE: Tampa's pass defense sterling at home.
5. Jay Cutler, DEN at NYJ
6. Brett Favre, NYJ vs. DEN
7. Matt Ryan, ATL at SD
NOTE: Mini-slump ends right here.
8. Chad Pennington, MIA at STL
NOTE: Rams can't cover anyone.
9. Matt Cassel, NE vs. PIT
NOTE: Tough matchup, but Pats won't run it.
10. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT at NE
11. David Garrard, JAC at HOU
12. Eli Manning, NYG at WAS
13. Jeff Garcia, TB vs. NO
14. Tyler Thigpen, KC at OAK
NOTE: One speed bump before the December cruise.
15. *Shaun Hill, SF at BUF
16. *Sage Rosenfels, HOU vs. JAC
NOTE: There's an outside chance Schaub could play.
17. Gus Frerotte, MIN vs. CHI
18. Kyle Orton, CHI at MIN
19. Trent Edwards, BUF vs. SF
20. Jake Delhomme, CAR at GB
NOTE: Can't be trusted here.
21. Jason Campbell, WAS vs. NYG
22. Joe Flacco, BAL at CIN
23. *JaMarcus Russell, OAK vs. KC
NOTE: Improving, but game plan hides him.
24. *Derek Anderson, CLE vs. IND
25. *Trent Green, STL vs. MIA
26. *Ryan Fitzpatrick, CIN vs. BAL

Running Back
1. Adrian Peterson, MIN vs. CHI
NOTE: He's owned them in the past.
2. Thomas Jones, NYJ vs. DEN
NOTE: Yep, he's a stud this year.
3. DeAngelo Williams, CAR at GB
4. Michael Turner, ATL at SD
NOTE: Dynamic runner, not used in pass game.
5. Joseph Addai, IND at CLE
6. Marshawn Lynch, BUF vs. SF
7. LaDainian Tomlinson, SD vs. ATL
8. Frank Gore, SF at BUF
9. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC at HOU
10. Ronnie Brown, MIA at STL
11. *Clinton Portis, WAS vs. NYG
NOTE: Game-time decision, no Friday work.
12. Steve Slaton, HOU vs. JAC
NOTE: Needed more with Green out.
13. Larry Johnson, KC at OAK
14. *Brandon Jacobs, NYG at WAS
15. Ryan Grant, GB vs. CAR
16. Matt Forte, CHI at MIN
NOTE: They'll use him as a receiver here.
17. *Warrick Dunn, TB vs. NO
NOTE: Tank pretty close to full.
18. Justin Fargas, OAK vs. KC
19. Jamal Lewis, CLE vs. IND
20. *Reggie Bush, NO at TB
NOTE: Expected to play, but check on Sunday.
21. *Steven Jackson, STL vs. MIA
NOTE: Same story as Bush above.
22. Ricky Williams, MIA at STL
23. Darren McFadden, OAK vs. KC
24. *Willis McGahee, BAL at CIN
25. *Derrick Ward, NYG at WAS
26. Pierre Thomas, NO at TB
27. Kevin Faulk, NE vs. PIT
28. Leon Washington, NYJ vs. DEN
NOTE: Deserves even more touches.
29. *Jonathan Stewart, CAR at GB
30. *Le'Ron McClain, BAL at CIN
31. *Peyton Hillis, DEN at NYJ
32. *Willie Parker, PIT at NE
NOTE: Did work the last two days.
33. *Mewelde Moore, PIT at NE
34. Cedric Benson, CIN vs. BAL
35. *Fred Jackson, BUF vs. SF
36. Jamaal Charles, KC at OAK
NOTE: Early fumble cost him last week.
37. *Ladell Betts, WAS vs. NYG
38. *Dominic Rhodes, IND at CLE
39. *Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG at WAS
40. Fred Taylor, JAC at HOU
41. *Antonio Pittman, STL vs. MIA
42. *Jerome Harrison, CLE vs. IND
43. Sammy Morris, NE vs. PIT
44. *Jerious Norwood, ATL at SD
45. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, NE vs. PIT
46. Brandon Jackson, GB vs. CAR
47. Darren Sproles, SD vs. ATL
48. *Deuce McAllister, NO at TB
49. *Carnell Williams, TB vs. NO
NOTE: Nice story, but looked plodding last week.
50. Chester Taylor, MIN vs. CHI
51. Ray Rice, BAL at CIN
52. Gary Russell, PIT at NE
NOTE: Might steal goal-line looks.
53. *Tatum Bell, DEN at NYJ
54. *Kenneth Darby, STL vs. MIA
55. *Ryan Moats, HOU vs. JAC
56. Adrian Peterson, CHI at MIN
57. *Selvin Young, DEN at NYJ

Wide Receiver
1. Greg Jennings, GB vs. CAR
2. Reggie Wayne, IND at CLE
3. Andre Johnson, HOU vs. JAC
NOTE: A few end-zone visits would be nice.
4. *Roddy White, ATL at SD
5. Brandon Marshall, DEN at NYJ
6. Steve Smith, CAR at GB
7. Randy Moss, NE vs. PIT
8. Hines Ward, PIT at NE
9. Kevin Walter, HOU vs. JAC
10. Wes Welker, NE vs. PIT
NOTE: Needed more against this scheme.
11. *Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ vs. DEN
12. Lee Evans, BUF vs. SF
13. Lance Moore, NO at TB
NOTE: He's the true No. 1 here.
14. *Laveranues Coles, NYJ vs. DEN
15. Bernard Berrian, MIN vs. CHI
NOTE: Schedule lets up down the stretch.
16. Anthony Gonzalez, IND at CLE
NOTE: Playing about 80 percent of snaps now.
17. Antonio Bryant, TB vs. NO
18. Vincent Jackson, SD vs. ATL
19. Dwayne Bowe, KC at OAK
20. *Santana Moss, WAS vs. NYG
21. Donald Driver, GB vs. CAR
22. *Marques Colston, NO at TB
23. *T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN vs. BAL
24. Braylon Edwards, CLE vs. IND
25. Ted Ginn, MIA at STL
26. *Santonio Holmes, PIT at NE
NOTE: Great matchup, but hard to trust.
27. Matt Jones, JAC at HOU
28. Donnie Avery, STL vs. MIA
29. Torry Holt, STL vs. MIA
30. *Derrick Mason, BAL at CIN
31. *Eddie Royal, DEN at NYJ
NOTE: Not 100 percent, tread carefully.
32. Michael Jenkins, ATL at SD
33. Chris Chambers, SD vs. ATL
34. *Marvin Harrison, IND at CLE
35. Jabar Gaffney, NE vs. PIT
36. Isaac Bruce, SF at BUF
37. Davone Bess, MIA at STL
38. *Domenik Hixon, NYG at WAS
NOTE: Intriguing sleeper with Plaxico out.
39. *Mark Bradley, KC at OAK
NOTE: Limited all week and a game-time call.
40. Devin Hester, CHI at MIN
41. Malcom Floyd, SD vs. ATL
42. Muhsin Muhammad, CAR at GB
43. *Chad Johnson, CIN vs. BAL
NOTE: Call him a cab.
44. Harry Douglas, ATL at SD
NOTE: Pencil-thin, but can fly.
45. Nate Washington, PIT at NE
46. Steve Smith, NYG at WAS
47. Antwaan Randle El, WAS vs. NYG
NOTE: Shouldn't be a starter on a winning club.
48. Joey Galloway, TB vs. NO
49. *Bryant Johnson, SF at BUF
50. Amani Toomer, NYG at WAS
51. Josh Reed, BUF vs. SF
52. Ronald Curry, OAK vs. KC
53. Sidney Rice, MIN vs. CHI
54. Reggie Williams, JAC at HOU
NOTE: Has shot at a cheap TD.
55. Bobby Wade, MIN vs. CHI
56. Jason Hill, SF at BUF
57. *Mark Clayton, BAL at CIN
58. Chansi Stuckey, NYJ vs. DEN
59. Johnnie Lee Higgins, OAK vs. KC
NOTE: Special teams ace, raw as a receiver.
60. Chris Henry, CIN vs. BAL
61. *Jerry Porter, JAC at HOU
NOTE: A foolish contract bites the Jags.
62. *Malcolm Kelly, WAS vs. NYG
63. Rashied Davis, CHI at MIN
64. Ike Hilliard, TB vs. NO
65. Devery Henderson, NO at TB
66. *Plaxico Burress, NYG at WAS
NOTE: Already ruled out.

Tight End
1. *Tony Gonzalez, KC at OAK
NOTE: Dominating the position again.
2. Antonio Gates, SD vs. ATL
3. Dallas Clark, IND at CLE
4. Dustin Keller, NYJ vs. DEN
NOTE: Favre trusts him in all spots.
5. Chris Cooley, WAS vs. NYG
6. *Kellen Winslow, CLE vs. IND
NOTE: Not completely healthy but should go.
7. Owen Daniels, HOU vs. JAC
8. *Kevin Boss, NYG at WAS
NOTE: Handy in the red zone.
9. Jeremy Shockey, NO at TB
10. *Tony Scheffler, DEN at NYJ
11. Greg Olsen, CHI at MIN
12. *Zach Miller, OAK vs. KC
NOTE: Would be every-week startable in a different city.
13. Billy Miller, NO at TB
14. Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN vs. CHI
15. Vernon Davis, SF at BUF
NOTE: Learning to crawl.
16. *Heath Miller, PIT at NE
17. Jerramy Stevens, TB vs. NO
18. Donald Lee, GB vs. CAR
19. Ben Watson, NE vs. PIT
20. Marcedes Lewis, JAC at HOU
21. Anthony Fasano, MIA at STL
22. *Robert Royal, BUF vs. SF
23. Todd Heap, BAL at CIN
24. Dante Rosario, CAR at GB
NOTE: Deserves more attention.
25. *Nate Jackson, DEN at NYJ
26. *Desmond Clark, CHI at MIN

Kicker
1. Adam Vinatieri, IND at CLE
NOTE: Ride the Colts down the stretch.
2. Matt Bryant, TB vs. NO
3. *Jay Feely, NYJ vs. DEN
NOTE: Probably too sizzling to sit (51 points in four games).
4. *Jason Elam, ATL at SD
5. *Tynes/Carney, NYG at WAS
6. Ryan Longwell, MIN vs. CHI
7. Mason Crosby, GB vs. CAR
NOTE: Won't go south in northern weather.
8. Stephen Gostkowski, NE vs. PIT
9. Rian Lindell, BUF vs. SF
10. Nate Kaeding, SD vs. ATL
11. Robbie Gould, CHI at MIN
12. Dan Carpenter, MIA at STL
NOTE: Indoors, and points should flow.
13. Matt Stover, BAL at CIN
14. John Kasay, CAR at GB
15. Kris Brown, HOU vs. JAC
16. Josh Scobee, JAC at HOU
17. Matt Prater, DEN at NYJ
18. Shaun Suisham, WAS vs. NYG
19. Phil Dawson, CLE vs. IND
NOTE: Sluggish offense could hold him back.
20. Jeff Reed, PIT at NE
21. *Garrett Hartley, NO at TB
22. Joe Nedney, SF at BUF
23. Sebastian Janikowski, OAK vs. KC
24. Connor Barth, KC at OAK
25. Josh Brown, STL vs. MIA
26. Shayne Graham, CIN vs. BAL

Defense
1. Baltimore at Cincinnati
NOTEL: Duck, Mr. Fitzpatrick.
2. New York Giants at Washington
3. New York Jets vs. Denver
4. Miami at St. Louis
NOTE: Pick on the weak offense.
5. Green Bay vs. Carolina
6. Indianapolis at Cleveland
NOTE: Anderson will make some negative plays.
7. Minnesota vs. Chicago
8. New England vs. Pittsburgh
9. Buffalo vs. San Francisco
10. Pittsburgh at New England
11. Carolina at Green Bay
12. Tampa Bay vs. New Orleans
13. Oakland vs. Kansas City
14. Chicago at Minnesota
15. Atlanta at San Diego
NOTE: Unit improving, slowly but surely.
16. San Francisco at Buffalo
17. New Orleans at Tampa Bay
18. Cincinnati vs. Baltimore
19. Washington vs. New York Giants
NOTE: Where's the pass rush?
20. Houston vs. Jacksonville
21. San Diego vs. Atlanta
22. Jacksonville at Houston
23. Denver at New York Jets
24. Kansas City at Oakland
25. Cleveland vs. Indianapolis
26. St Louis vs. Miami

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Injury report for NFL Week 13

9:22 AM Sat, Nov 29, 2008 | |
By Mike McDermott    Email

By Rob Steingall

Quarterbacks

Bengals QB Carson Palmer (right elbow) is out once again; Ryan Fitzpatrick gets thrown to the Ravens.

Jaguars QB David Garrard (back) is probable after returning to full practice on Friday and starts Monday night in Houston.

Rams QB Marc Bulger (concussion) practiced fully Thursday and Friday and will start against the Dolphins indoors.

Texans QB Matt Schaub (knee) is questionable after returning to limited practice on Thursday and Friday. It will be a game-time decision, Sage Rosenfels starting if Schaub can't go.

Browns QB Brady Quinn (right finger) is out for the season. Derek Anderson will once again be under center for the Browns against the Colts, who have yielded four passing touchdowns all year.

Running Backs

Rams RB Steven Jackson (thigh) is questionable after limited reps in practice all week. He should be active, but Antonio Pittman may still get the start and split carries with S-Jax.

Redskins RB Clinton Portis (knee) is questionable after being held out of practice all week. Ladell Betts will start if he Portis is inactive. But in a game this big versus the Giants, Portis should continue playing through this injury.

Giants RB Brandon Jacobs (knee) practiced fully Thursday and Friday and should start, despite being listed as questionable. Teammate RB Ahmad Bradshaw (neck) was held out of practice all week and is questionable. If he is unable to go, look for an increased workload for Derrick Ward in the backfield and Domenik Hixon on special teams.

Saints RB Reggie Bush (knee) is questionable this week after limited reps all week. Coach Sean Payton says he'll play, but returns could be limited given that he's traveling to Tampa Bay, one of the league's stingiest defenses.

Texans RB Steve Slaton (chest) practiced fully Thursday and Friday and is listed as probable. He'll start and carry the load with Ahman Green out for the year.

Steelers RB Willie Parker (knee) practiced fully Thursday and Friday and is questionable. He'll see a bulk of the carries if he's active, with Mewelde Moore also seeing touches in New England.

Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart (heel) practiced fully all week and is listed as probable in Green Bay. He's a clear back up now, though, to the emerging DeAngelo Williams.

Falcons RB Jerious Norwood (rib) is probable in San Diego after getting limited practice reps this week. He'll be in his normal backup role to Michael Turner, but isn't worth starting in fantasy leagues given his limited touches.

Ravens RB Le'Ron McClain (thigh) is probable after practicing on a limited basis all week. He'll be around to vulture short-yardage carries and possible goal-line opportunities from Willis McGahee at Cincy.

Broncos RB Selvin Young (groin) is questionable after limited reps in practice all week. Peyton Hillis (shoulder) is probable and should see most of the carries, although he'll be in for a tough task against a stingy Jets run defense.

Wide Receivers

Bengals WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh (back) returned to full practice Friday and is probable.

Giants WR Plaxico Burress (hamstring) is out this week. Teammate WR Domenik Hixon (ankle) is probable and should be the guy who benefits most from the absence of Plax in Washington.

Falcons WR Roddy White (back) is questionable, but practiced fully all week and should be near full speed on game day against a vulnerable Chargers secondary.

Broncos WR Brandon Marshall (hip) is probable and will start versus the Jets after practicing fully all week. Teammate WR Eddie Royal (toe) is questionable after being limited in practice all week. He'll be the dreaded game-time decision.

Packers WR Greg Jennings (rib) is probable and will start after putting in full reps at practice on Friday.

Jets WR Lavernaues Coles (thigh) and teammate Jerricho Cotchery (shoulder) are both listed as probable. Both will start and be at full speed.

Ravens WR Derrick Mason (shoulder) is probable with an injury he's played through for weeks, while teammate Mark Clayton (back) is questionable.

Dolphins WR Greg Camarillo (knee) is out for the season. Ted Ginn Jr. should benefit from this devastating loss, especially in St. Louis.

Chiefs WR Mark Bradley (calf) was held out of practice most of the week before returning to limited reps on Friday. There is a good chance he'll be inactive, but monitor the situation on game day to be sure.

Bucs WR Ike Hilliard (shoulder) is probable against the Saints after a full week of practice.

Bears WR Marty Booker (knee) is questionable after limited participation in practice this week. He is a poor fantasy option versus the Vikings and should be avoided if possible.

Other Positions

Browns TE Kellen Winslow (shoulder) was limited in practice all week and is questionable against the Colts. Expect him to start, but keep an eye on the situation as game time approaches.

Ravens TE Todd Heap (illness) is listed as probable after practicing fully on Friday.

Jets K Mike Nugent (right thigh) is probable this week after limited practice reps. Coach Eric Mangini has yet to name his Sunday kicker, but there's no reason to switch from reliable Jay Feely.

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November 26

NFL Stock Watch -- T.O. is an elite play again

1:00 PM Wed, Nov 26, 2008 | |
By Mike McDermott    Email

By Mark P. Stopa

Why is Terrell Owens an upgrade but Randy Moss is not? How can you play the fantasy matchups to ensure that you have a Happy Thanksgiving? For answers to these questions and more, here are my recommendations heading into Week 13.

Upgrades

Leon Washington, RB, Jets: Throughout the year, I've considered Washington a decent play in a good matchup, e.g., against the Chiefs or the Broncos. But he's not someone who gets enough touches to be considered a reliable fantasy play. Last week, though, he scored twice even in a bad matchup, bringing his season TD total to seven. That might not sound like much, but it's an extraordinary statistic for a backup running back, especially one who does not get goal-line touches. When is the last time a third-down, scat-back type of player found the end zone eight times (seven TDs and a two-pointer) on only 59 carries and 31 receptions? Even with those limited touches, Washington is 48th in the NFL in scoring, and that includes kickers! Washington has proven that he is flex-worthy regardless of the matchup.

Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders: Justin Fargas is still getting most of the carries, but McFadden looked healthy last week and got two goal-line touchdowns. The Raiders love to run, so in good matchups (like this week against the Chiefs), you can start McFadden with confidence.

Terrell Owens, WR, Cowboys: Before last week, Owens failed to amass 40 yards receiving in five straight games. What changed last week? It's not just the 75-yard touchdown. That was nice, of course, but even if we were to ignore that, Owens still would have had 6 catches for 138 yards (good for a 23-yard average). That stat, even more than the long touchdown, tells me that Tony Romo is back, healthy and throwing deep again. Expect Owens to remain an elite receiver for the rest of the season.

Lance Moore, WR, Saints: The Packers' pass defense was arguably the best in the league heading into the Monday-night contest against the Saints. If you didn't know that beforehand, though, you sure wouldn't have thought it by watching the game. With Drew Brees throwing to him, Moore looked like a Pro Bowl receiver. I doubt he makes it to Hawaii, but it's time to stop considering Moore a matchup play and to insert him in your starting lineup every week. Check out his game log - since he entered the Saints' starting lineup in Week 3, he's had a good or great game every week except two. That's what I call an every-week starter.

No Change

LenDale White, RB, Titans: If you watch SportsCenter, you saw White's postgame rant to reporters complaining about how he was only on the field for three plays against the Jets. I saw it, too, so I know White hasn't been getting much playing time. So why is he not a downgrade? Well, nothing about White has really changed - he's a slow, fat guy who scores short-yardage touchdowns against bad teams. Last week, he faced a good team (the Jets), so of course he struggled. This week, on the other hand, the stars are all aligned for White to perform well. The Titans have been struggling to run the ball, so Jeff Fisher will ensure that they reestablish the run. They just suffered their first loss, so they will be mad. And most importantly, they get to play a terrible Lions team on Thanksgiving. I'd be shocked if White does not score this week and would not be at all surprised to see him have his best game of the year. Start White as a matchup play this week and you will have a happy Thanksgiving. Just don't count on similar production against good teams.

Randy Moss, WR, Patriots: Owens was an upgrade, so why isn't Moss, coming of a huge, 3-TD game? Well, Owens' value changed because Romo is back in the lineup, and it's clear that Owens is an elite fantasy receiver when he has a QB who can throw to him. With that in mind, look at Moss - what changed for him last week? Sure, Matt Cassel is playing better. But I attribute Moss' huge game to the Dolphins stubbornly and stupidly playing single coverage all game. After all, Cassel had a great game the prior week, too, and Moss was rather ordinary. But here's the key: After what Moss did last week against single coverage, there's no way he sees that again this year. And if you don't think that matters, check out his game log from this year (most of which included games where he was double covered). It's good, but not elite. Or go pull out the tapes from last year's playoffs, when teams double-covered him all over the field and he disappeared (no catches over 18 yards). Then check out the upcoming schedule - a matchup against the Steelers this week does not bode well. You have to start Moss if you own him, but I don't think his value went up after last week - it was just one good game against single coverage. To put it differently, if you can get Anquan Boldin for Moss in a trade, don't hesitate to pull the trigger.

Downgrades

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers: Tomlinson teased fantasy owners with a good game against the Saints a few weeks ago. Unfortunately, that now looks like an aberration. Tomlinson's burst is gone and so are the explosive plays. He's become more of a plodder - similar to what Edgerrin James was doing last year or, dare I say it, what Shaun Alexander did near the end. Tomlinson may not fall off a cliff as rapidly as Alexander did, but therein lies the problem; in some ways, it would almost be better if Tomlinson fell off a cliff. Instead, he is slowly declining, leaving fantasy owners hoping for a return to his past glory, only to constantly be disappointed. Don't fall into that trap; recognize Tomlinson for what he is - an aging veteran who is a useful fantasy player on a good Chargers offense but nothing near the fantasy stud that he was in recent seasons.

Julius Jones, RB, Seahawks: I was expecting good things for the Seattle offense once Matt Hasselbeck came back. Let's just say I'm disappointed. It seems like Hasselbeck is still hurt, and that limits the ceiling of all of the Seahawks' skill players. Even worse for Jones is that Maurice Morris looked like a feature back last week, so who cares if Jones is technically starting against the Cowboys? It's time to cut bait with Jones in all but deep leagues.

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Matchup Meter -- NFL Week 13 player rankings

8:58 AM Wed, Nov 26, 2008 | |
By Mike McDermott    Email

By Chad F. Lawton

Following are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/ receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards).

Next Updated: 11/29

* = check status

Quarterback
1. Peyton Manning, IND at CLE
2. *Kurt Warner, ARI at PHI
NOTE: How can you sit him?
3. *Tony Romo, DAL vs. SEA
4. Drew Brees, NO at TB
NOTE: Should get better test here.
5. Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. CAR
6. Brett Favre, NYJ vs. DEN
7. Philip Rivers, SD vs. ATL
8. Jay Cutler, DEN at NYJ
9. Matt Ryan, ATL at SD
NOTE: TD drought ends now.
10. Eli Manning, NYG at WAS
11. Matt Cassel, NE vs. PIT
NOTE: He's cashed in the last few weeks.
12. *Sage Rosenfels, HOU vs. JAC
13. Kerry Collins, TEN at DET
14. Tyler Thigpen, KC at OAK
NOTE: Rushing skills provide nice baseline.
15. Jeff Garcia, TB vs. NO
NOTE: Took too many sacks at Detroit.
16. *Donovan McNabb, PHI vs. ARI
17. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT at NE
18. David Garrard, JAC at HOU
19. Trent Edwards, BUF vs. SF
NOTE: Nice rally, but KC helped.
20. Chad Pennington, MIA at STL
21. Gus Frerotte, MIN vs. CHI
22. Kyle Orton, CHI at MIN
NOTE: Doesn't look healthy yet.
23. *Shaun Hill, SF at BUF
24. Jake Delhomme, CAR at GB
25. Jason Campbell, WAS vs. NYG
26. *Matt Hasselbeck, SEA at DAL
27. Joe Flacco, BAL at CIN
28. *JaMarcus Russell, OAK vs. KC
29. *Derek Anderson, CLE vs. IND
NOTE: Brady Quinn out for season.
30. *Trent Green, STL vs. MIA
31. *Daunte Culpepper, DET vs. TEN
32. *Ryan Fitzpatrick, CIN vs. BAL

Running Back
1. Adrian Peterson, MIN vs. CHI
2. Marion Barber, DAL vs. SEA
3. Thomas Jones, NYJ vs. DEN
NOTE: The quietest fantasy stud out there.
4. DeAngelo Williams, CAR at GB
5. Joseph Addai, IND at CLE
6. Michael Turner, ATL at SD
NOTE: He's justified the contract.
7. Marshawn Lynch, BUF vs. SF
8. *Clinton Portis, WAS vs. NYG
9. Frank Gore, SF at BUF
10. Chris Johnson, TEN at DET
11. LaDainian Tomlinson, SD vs. ATL
12. Ronnie Brown, MIA at STL
13. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC at HOU
NOTE: Team finally using him right.
14. Larry Johnson, KC at OAK
NOTE: Not a great fit for spread offense.
15. Ryan Grant, GB vs. CAR
16. Matt Forte, CHI at MIN
17. *Warrick Dunn, TB vs. NO
18. Steve Slaton, HOU vs. JAC
NOTE: Needed more with Green out.
19. Justin Fargas, OAK vs. KC
20. Jamal Lewis, CLE vs. IND
21. *Mewelde Moore, PIT at NE
NOTE: Good chance Parker won't go.
22. *Brandon Jacobs, NYG at WAS
23. *Willis McGahee, BAL at CIN
24. *Derrick Ward, NYG at WAS
25. *Kevin Smith, DET vs. TEN
NOTE: Not a special talent, but he finds a way.
26. Pierre Thomas, NO at TB
27. Ricky Williams, MIA at STL
28. *Brian Westbrook, PHI vs. ARI
NOTE: It's clear he isn't healthy.
29. LenDale White, TEN at DET
NOTE: Look for a mercy touchdown.
30. Leon Washington, NYJ vs. DEN
31. *Tim Hightower, ARI at PHI
32. *Peyton Hillis, DEN at NYJ
33. *Fred Jackson, BUF vs. SF
34. *Maurice Morris, SEA at DAL
35. Darren McFadden, OAK vs. KC
NOTE: Looked solid in Denver.
36. *Reggie Bush, NO at TB
37. *Jonathan Stewart, CAR at GB
NOTE: Getting pushed aside by Williams.
38. *Lorenzo Booker, PHI vs. ARI
39. Kevin Faulk, NE vs. PIT
40. Cedric Benson, CIN vs. BAL
41. *Antonio Pittman, STL vs. MIA
42. *Le'Ron McClain, BAL at CIN
NOTE: No way to know in Baltimore.
43. *Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG at WAS
44. *Dominic Rhodes, IND at CLE
45. *Julius Jones, SEA at DAL
46. Jamaal Charles, KC at OAK
47. J.J. Arrington, ARI at PHI
48. *Willie Parker, PIT at NE
49. Fred Taylor, JAC at HOU
50. Jerome Harrison, CLE vs. IND
51. *Steven Jackson, STL vs. MIA
NOTE: Hopes to practice Wednesday.
52. Jerious Norwood, ATL at SD
53. *Sammy Morris, NE vs. PIT
54. *Ray Rice, BAL at CIN
55. Ladell Betts, WAS vs. NYG
56. *BenJarvus Green-Ellis, NE vs. PIT
57. Darren Sproles, SD vs. ATL
58. Chester Taylor, MIN vs. CHI
59. Gary Russell, PIT at NE
NOTE: Might get into goal-line mix.
60. *Deuce McAllister, NO at TB
61. *Tatum Bell, DEN at NYJ
62. *Kenneth Darby, STL vs. MIA
63. T.J. Duckett, SEA at DAL
64. Edgerrin James, ARI at PHI
65. Adrian Peterson, CHI at MIN
66. *Ryan Moats, HOU vs. JAC
67. *Rudi Johnson, DET vs. TEN
68. *Carnell Williams, TB vs. NO
69. Brandon Jackson, GB vs. CAR
70. *Selvin Young, DEN at NYJ

Wide Receiver
1. Anquan Boldin, ARI at PHI
2. Greg Jennings, GB vs. CAR
3. Terrell Owens, DAL vs. SEA
4. *Reggie Wayne, IND at CLE
5. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI at PHI
6. Roddy White, ATL at SD
7. Andre Johnson, HOU vs. JAC
NOTE: Doesn't adjust to deep ball well.
8. Brandon Marshall, DEN at NYJ
9. Steve Smith, CAR at GB
10. Lance Moore, NO at TB
NOTE: The most-trusted target here.
11. *Calvin Johnson, DET vs. TEN
NOTE: He's doing something every week.
12. Randy Moss, NE vs. PIT
13. Hines Ward, PIT at NE
14. Kevin Walter, HOU vs. JAC
NOTE: Your draft-day price was a bargain.
15. Wes Welker, NE vs. PIT
16. Laveranues Coles, NYJ vs. DEN
17. Dwayne Bowe, KC at OAK
18. *Marques Colston, NO at TB
19. Lee Evans, BUF vs. SF
20. *Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ vs. DEN
21. Vincent Jackson, SD vs. ATL
NOTE: Has chance to be a star soon.
22. Antonio Bryant, TB vs. NO
23. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN vs. BAL
24. *Santana Moss, WAS vs. NYG
25. Bernard Berrian, MIN vs. CHI
NOTE: Give him one more shot.
26. DeSean Jackson, PHI vs. ARI
27. *Anthony Gonzalez, IND at CLE
28. Donald Driver, GB vs. CAR
29. Braylon Edwards, CLE vs. IND
30. Justin Gage, TEN at DET
31. Ted Ginn, MIA at STL
NOTE: Unpolished, but he can fly.
32. Donnie Avery, STL vs. MIA
33. Kevin Curtis, PHI vs. ARI
34. Eddie Royal, DEN at NYJ
35. *Matt Jones, JAC at HOU
NOTE: This could be the last week.
36. *Santonio Holmes, PIT at NE
NOTE: Driving his owners batty.
37. Steve Breaston, ARI at PHI
38. Torry Holt, STL vs. MIA
39. *Derrick Mason, BAL at CIN
40. Michael Jenkins, ATL at SD
41. Roy Williams, DAL vs. SEA
NOTE: Hasn't gotten in the flow yet.
42. Chris Chambers, SD vs. ATL
43. *Mark Bradley, KC at OAK
44. Jabar Gaffney, NE vs. PIT
45. *Plaxico Burress, NYG at WAS
46. Devin Hester, CHI at MIN
47. Muhsin Muhammad, CAR at GB
48. Isaac Bruce, SF at BUF
NOTE: Finally did something with Hill.
49. *Marvin Harrison, IND at CLE
50. Malcom Floyd, SD vs. ATL
51. Davone Bess, MIA at STL
NOTE: Steps in with Camarillo out.
52. *Chad Johnson, CIN vs. BAL
53. Nate Washington, PIT at NE
54. Antwaan Randle El, WAS vs. NYG
55. Bobby Engram, SEA at DAL
56. Patrick Crayton, DAL vs. SEA
57. Brandon Jones, TEN at DET
58. *Bryant Johnson, SF at BUF
59. Joey Galloway, TB vs. NO
NOTE: Invisible on the field; used to own these guys.
60. *Reggie Brown, PHI vs. ARI
61. Amani Toomer, NYG at WAS
62. Bobby Wade, MIN vs. CHI
63. Jason Hill, SF at BUF
64. Josh Reed, BUF vs. SF
65. *Domenik Hixon, NYG at WAS
NOTE: Handy player when needed.
66. Harry Douglas, ATL at SD
NOTE: Rail-thin but major jets.
67. Shaun McDonald, DET vs. TEN
68. *Deion Branch, SEA at DAL
69. Hank Baskett, PHI vs. ARI
70. Steven Smith, NYG at WAS
71. Mark Clayton, BAL at CIN
NOTE: A big play now and then.
72. Sidney Rice, MIN vs. CHI
73. Ronald Curry, OAK vs. KC
74. Devery Henderson, NO at TB
75. Koren Robinson, SEA at DAL
76. Chris Henry, CIN vs. BAL
77. Justin McCareins, TEN at DET
78. Reggie Williams, JAC at HOU
79. Chansi Stuckey, NYJ vs. DEN
80. *Jerry Porter, JAC at HOU
NOTE: Stealing money on pay day.
81. Rashied Davis, CHI at MIN
82. Ike Hilliard, TB vs. NO
83. Johnnie Lee Higgins, OAK vs. KC
84. *Malcolm Kelly, WAS vs. NYG

Tight End
1. *Tony Gonzalez, KC at OAK
NOTE: Dominating the position right now.
2. Antonio Gates, SD vs. ATL
3. Dallas Clark, IND at CLE
4. Dustin Keller, NYJ vs. DEN
NOTE: Favre trusts him in a tight spot.
5. Owen Daniels, HOU vs. JAC
6. Chris Cooley, WAS vs. NYG
7. *Jason Witten, DAL vs. SEA
8. Bo Scaife, TEN at DET
9. *Kellen Winslow, CLE vs. IND
10. Jeremy Shockey, NO at TB
11. *Kevin Boss, NYG at WAS
NOTE: Handy at the goal line.
12. *Tony Scheffler, DEN at NYJ
13. Zach Miller, OAK vs. KC
14. Greg Olsen, CHI at MIN
NOTE: Orton slump brings him down.
15. John Carlson, SEA at DAL
16. Billy Miller, NO at TB
17. *Heath Miller, PIT at NE
18. Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN vs. CHI
19. Vernon Davis, SF at BUF
20. *Brent Celek, PHI vs. ARI
NOTE: Finally getting increased snaps.
21. Donald Lee, GB vs. CAR
22. Jerramy Stevens, TB vs. NO
23. Ben Watson, NE vs. PIT
24. Anthony Fasano, MIA at STL
25. *Robert Royal, BUF vs. SF
26. Todd Heap, BAL at CIN
27. Dante Rosario, CAR at GB
28. Marcedes Lewis, JAC at HOU
29. *Desmond Clark, CHI at MIN
30. Alge Crumpler, TEN at DET
31. *Matt Spaeth, PIT at NE
32. *Nate Jackson, DEN at NYJ
33. *L.J. Smith, PHI vs. ARI

Kicker
1. Rob Bironas, TEN at DET
NOTE: Go where the points are.
2. Matt Bryant, TB vs. NO
3. Jason Elam, ATL at SD
4. *Lawrence Tynes/John Carney, NYG at WAS 5. *Jay Feely, NYJ vs. DEN
NOTE: A scoring machine of late, but Nugent looms.
6. Ryan Longwell, MIN vs. CHI
7. Adam Vinatieri, IND at CLE
8. Stephen Gostkowski, NE vs. PIT
9. Nick Folk, DAL vs. SEA
10. Neil Rackers, ARI at PHI
11. Mason Crosby, GB vs. CAR
12. Nate Kaeding, SD vs. ATL
13. Rian Lindell, BUF vs. SF
14. Robbie Gould, CHI at MIN
15. Dan Carpenter, MIA at STL
16. John Kasay, CAR at GB
17. David Akers, PHI vs. ARI
NOTE: Hard offense to get behind.
18. Shaun Suisham, WAS vs. NYG
19. Josh Scobee, JAC at HOU
20. Phil Dawson, CLE vs. IND
21. Matt Prater, DEN at NYJ
NOTE: Slumping unit drains value.
22. Jeff Reed, PIT at NE
23. Kris Brown, HOU vs. JAC
24. Joe Nedney, SF at BUF
25. Sebastian Janikowski, OAK vs. KC
26. *Garrett Hartley, NO at TB
27. Jason Hanson, DET vs. TEN
28. Josh Brown, STL vs. MIA
29. Connor Barth, KC at OAK
30. Matt Stover, BAL at CIN
31. Shayne Graham, CIN vs. BAL
32. Olindo Mare, SEA at DAL

Defense
1. Baltimore at Cincinnati
NOTE: Duck, Mr. Fitzpatrick.
2. Tennessee at Detroit
NOTE: A tasty Thanksgiving appetizer.
3. Dallas vs. Seattle
4. New York Giants at Washington
5. New York Jets vs. Denver
6. Miami at St. Louis
7. Green Bay vs. Carolina
NOTE: Delhomme will make some loose throws.
8. Indianapolis at Cleveland
9. Minnesota vs. Chicago
10. Arizona at Philadelphia
NOTE: Up against a struggling offense.
11. New England vs. Pittsburgh
12. Buffalo vs. San Francisco
13. Pittsburgh at New England
14. Tampa Bay vs. New Orleans
15. Carolina at Green Bay
16. Oakland vs. Kansas City
17. Philadelphia vs. Arizona
18. New Orleans at Tampa Bay
19. Cincinnati vs. Baltimore
20. Chicago at Minnesota
21. Atlanta at San Diego
22. Washington vs. New York Giants
23. San Francisco at Buffalo
24. Houston vs. Jacksonville
25. San Diego vs. Atlanta
26. Jacksonville at Houston
27. Denver at New York Jets
28. Seattle at Dallas
29. Detroit vs. Tennessee
30. Kansas City at Oakland
31. Cleveland vs. Indianapolis
32. St. Louis vs. Miami

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November 25

Football by the Numbers -- A buy on Welker, still a sell on Moss

1:22 PM Tue, Nov 25, 2008 | |
By Mike McDermott    Email

By Michael Salfino

Before updating our Stat Power Rankings and dispensing with our usual player recommendations, let's address head-on a bicoastal NFL issue getting lots of attention.

The Niners loss on Sunday to Dallas adds fuel to the burning belief that West Coast teams traveling east (or at least playing on Eastern Standard Time) are seriously disadvantaged. The proof offered is their 0-15 record. I agree that these West Coast teams are indeed disadvantaged. The reason, though, isn't jet leg, but rather the more obvious fact that they stink.

We apply Occam's Razor here whenever possible: The simplest solution is usually correct. Even a generous weighting of recent body clock studies involving sports can't come close to explaining 0-15.

Recently, a study from Associated Professional Sleep Societies summarized in Scientific American magazine showed that baseball teams lost 60 percent of the time when traveling three time zones with no day to adjust. But with one day to adjust, as NFL teams have, that loss percentage went down to 52 percent (barely significant). Assuming football teams react similarly, their chances of winning, everything else being equal, might reasonably diminish slightly. But win probability would not go down to anything approaching zero.

Of course, all things aren't equal. The NFC West teams include the Seahawks and the Niners, a combined 5-17. In the AFC, the left coast teams are the Chargers and the Raiders, a combined 7-15. Conversely, there is no losing team in either the AFC or the NFC East. The AFC and NFC West combined have just two winning teams (together just four games over .500).

Conclusion: the West Coast teams don't win when traveling east because they are significantly inferior, especially when you consider that all teams are disadvantaged by playing on the road - three points on average.

Our key stat power ranks - looking only at net YPP (yards per play), net red-zone possessions, net third-down percentage and net interception percentage - still say the Giants are the best team in the NFL by a wide margin. Big Blue ranks 3rd, 1st, 4th and 5th out of the 32 teams in those stats, respectively.

Rounding out the top five are, in order, the Bucs, the Ravens, the Cardinals and the Titans.

Best teams falling out of playoff contention (overall stat power rank in parenthesis): the Saints (6th), the Eagles (7th), the Packers (9th) and the Chargers (11th).

Least deserving playoff contenders: the Vikings (27th), the Broncos (24th) and the Colts (23rd). This is a great argument for Peyton Manning being league MVP.

A note on player recommendations in light of sell orders last week on Randy Moss and Trent Edwards, who both went off in Week 12. My rules in making calls are to follow the objective data and to be clear (i.e., no hedging). But there is a degree of uncertainty that we have to accept. The call on Moss was based on his inability to generate big plays. But who could know the Dolphins would decide to single cover him? Edwards mostly got lucky with some impossible-to-project rushing TDs against a terrible defense. While I still can be very wrong, the weight of the data continues to call for selling these guys now (especially considering their inflated price off last week).

Buy

Shaun Hill, QB, Niners: He's still available in most leagues. Hill is likely to keep playing from behind in a very friendly passing system and is a good bet to avoid bad weather in fantasy playoff weeks: Jets, at Miami, at St. Louis (indoors).

Wes Welker, WR, Patriots: He's seventh with 103 targets and has caught an astounding 77.7 percent of them. Matt Cassel is doing a fine Tom Brady impression (minus the downfield passing). Welker's one TD is a stat that will likely correct.

Joseph Addai, RB, Colts: Indy has the Browns (away), the Bengals and the Lions the next three weeks. These teams are 28th, 24th and 32nd in rushing yards allowed and yield an average of 1.6 rushing TDs per game.

Hold

Thomas Jones, RB, Jets: He's the Jets' second-best back still by quite a distance (Leon Washington is simply sublime). But Jones gets the bulk of the carries and most goal-line action (the Jets have 51 red-zone possessions, third-best in football behind the Giants and the Cards).

Lance Moore, WR, Saints: I recommended him in the Notebook here when he was a nobody, but foolishly thought my receivers were better and passed. At least I own last week's tout, Pierre Thomas. Moore is not merely the Wayne Chrebet/Wes Welker type I envisioned: he's 11th in big play (25-yard-plus) catches.

Sell

Marques Colston, WR, Saints: He still has a name and is fresh off a 70-yard TD grab (on a busted coverage off a deft roll out by Drew Brees). Jeremy Shockey seems to have rehabilitated himself and looked like the Saints' No. 2 receiving option Monday night. Plus, Reggie Bush likely returns Sunday.

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November 20

Matchup Meter -- Week 12 NFL player rankings

9:58 AM Thu, Nov 20, 2008 | |
By Mike McDermott    Email

By Chad F. Lawton

Following are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/ receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards).

Next Updated: 11/22

* = check status

Quarterback
1. Peyton Manning, IND at SD
NOTE: Here come the fun matchups.
2. Jay Cutler, DEN vs. OAK
NOTE: Shanahan owns his former employer.
3. Kurt Warner, ARI vs. NYG
4. Aaron Rodgers, GB at NO
5. Tyler Thigpen, KC vs. BUF
NOTE: It's been a month, believe it.
6. Eli Manning, NYG at ARI
7. Drew Brees, NO vs. GB
NOTE: Not an easy secondary to throw on.
8. Tony Romo, DAL vs. SF
9. Sage Rosenfels, HOU at CLE
10. Kyle Orton, CHI at STL
NOTE: Full workout on Wednesday.
11. Donovan McNabb, PHI at BAL
NOTE: Mechanics are all over the place.
12. Brady Quinn, CLE vs. HOU
13. Matt Cassel, NE at MIA
14. Matt Ryan, ATL vs. CAR
15. David Garrard, JAC vs. MIN
16. Jeff Garcia, TB at DET
NOTE: They move the ball, but TDs are elusive.
17. Philip Rivers, SD vs. IND
NOTE: Colts have allowed just two passing TDs. 18. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT vs. CIN 19. Kerry Collins, TEN vs. NYJ 20. Jason Campbell, WAS at SEA 21. Brett Favre, NYJ at TEN 22. Chad Pennington, MIA vs. NE 23. Shaun Hill, SF at DAL 24. Marc Bulger, STL vs. CHI 25. *Matt Hasselbeck, SEA vs. WAS 26. Trent Edwards, BUF at KC
NOTE: Confidence looks completely shot.
27. Gus Frerotte, MIN at JAC
28. Jake Delhomme, CAR at ATL
NOTE: You wonder if he's hiding an injury.
29. Daunte Culpepper, DET vs. TB
30. JaMarcus Russell, OAK at DEN
31. Joe Flacco, BAL vs. PHI
32. Ryan Fitzpatrick, CIN at PIT

Running Back
1. Matt Forte, CHI at STL
2. Marion Barber, DAL vs. SF
NOTE: He'll drive the offense again.
3. Frank Gore, SF at DAL
4. *Clinton Portis, WAS at SEA
NOTE: He says he'll play through knee injury.
5. Adrian Peterson, MIN at JAC
6. Michael Turner, ATL vs. CAR
7. *LaDainian Tomlinson, SD vs. IND
NOTE: Great matchup, but doesn't look 100 percent.
8. DeAngelo Williams, CAR at ATL
9. *Warrick Dunn, TB at DET
NOTE: Everyone runs on Detroit.
10. Marshawn Lynch, BUF at KC
11. Joseph Addai, IND at SD
12. Steve Slaton, HOU at CLE
13. Ryan Grant, GB at NO
NOTE: Major rally over the last month.
14. Thomas Jones, NYJ at TEN
15. Jamal Lewis, CLE vs. HOU
16. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC vs. MIN
NOTE: Pushing Taylor out of the way.
17. Willie Parker, PIT vs. CIN
18. Ronnie Brown, MIA vs. NE
19. *Derrick Ward, NYG at ARI
NOTE: A Top-12 play if Jacobs sits.
20. *Brian Westbrook, PHI at BAL
NOTE: Knee and ankle problems aren't going away.
21. Peyton Hillis, DEN vs. OAK
NOTE: Converted fullback makes good.
22. Larry Johnson, KC vs. BUF
23. Chris Johnson, TEN vs. NYJ
24. *Brandon Jacobs, NYG at ARI
25. Willis McGahee, BAL vs. PHI
26. *Reggie Bush, NO vs. GB
NOTE: Too early to tell if he'll go.
27. *Kevin Smith, DET vs. TB
28. Antonio Pittman, STL vs. CHI
NOTE: He'll start with Jackson out.
29. Tim Hightower, ARI vs. NYG
NOTE: Losing key touches to Arrington.
30. Pierre Thomas, NO vs. GB
31. *Sammy Morris, NE at MIA
32. Justin Fargas, OAK at DEN
33. Jonathan Stewart, CAR at ATL
34. Ricky Williams, MIA vs. NE
35. Cedric Benson, CIN at PIT
NOTE: No juice, but gets lots of touches.
36. Julius Jones, SEA vs. WAS
37. *LenDale White, TEN vs. NYJ
38. *Ken Darby, STL vs. CHI
39. Ahman Green, HOU at CLE
40. Leon Washington, NYJ at TEN
NOTE: Still needs to touch it more.
41. *Fred Jackson, BUF at KC
42. *Darren McFadden, OAK at DEN
43. J.J. Arrington, ARI vs. NYG
44. Correll Buckhalter, PHI at BAL
NOTE: Intriguing sleeper with Westbrook ailing.
45. Kevin Faulk, NE at MIA
46. Mewelde Moore, PIT vs. CIN
47. Chester Taylor, MIN at JAC
48. *Jerious Norwood, ATL vs. CAR
NOTE: Nicked up, but worked Wednesday.
49. T.J. Duckett, SEA vs. WAS
50. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG at ARI
51. *Fred Taylor, JAC vs. MIN
52. Jamaal Charles, KC vs. BUF
53. Tatum Bell, DEN vs. OAK
NOTE: From cell-phone manager to NFL backup.
54. Ray Rice, BAL vs. PHI
55. Le'Ron McClain, BAL vs. PHI
56. Dominic Rhodes, IND at SD
57. *Deuce McAllister, NO vs. GB
58. Brandon Jackson, GB at NO
59. Maurice Morris, SEA vs. WAS
60. *P.J. Pope, DEN vs. OAK
61. Kevin Jones, CHI at STL
62. Michael Robinson, SF at DAL
63. Darren Sproles, SD vs. IND
64. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, NE at MIA
NOTE: Value plummets with Morris back.
65. Edgerrin James, ARI vs. NYG
66. *Ladell Betts, WAS at SEA
67. DeShaun Foster, SF at DAL
68. *Rudi Johnson, DET vs. TB

Wide Receiver
1. Reggie Wayne, IND at SD
2. Anquan Boldin, ARI vs. NYG
3. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI vs. NYG
4. *Roddy White, ATL vs. CAR
5. Hines Ward, PIT vs. CIN
6. Brandon Marshall, DEN vs. OAK
7. Greg Jennings, GB at NO
8. Andre Johnson, HOU at CLE
NOTE: All the skills, but allergic to end zone.
9. Steve Smith, CAR at ATL
NOTE: Delhomme is draining his value.
10. *Terrell Owens, DAL vs. SF
11. Dwayne Bowe, KC vs. BUF
NOTE: Meshes well with Thigpen.
12. Plaxico Burress, NYG at ARI
13. Santana Moss, WAS at SEA
14. Calvin Johnson, DET vs. TB
NOTE: Does something just about every week.
15. *T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN at PIT
16. Braylon Edwards, CLE vs. HOU
NOTE: May have turned the corner in Buffalo.
17. Eddie Royal, DEN vs. OAK
18. Antonio Bryant, TB at DET
19. Donnie Avery, STL vs. CHI
20. Kevin Walter, HOU at CLE
NOTE: Belongs on all-underrated team
21. Wes Welker, NE at MIA
22. Marques Colston, NO vs. GB
23. Lee Evans, BUF at KC
NOTE: He's open, but Edwards won't pull trigger.
24. *Donald Driver, GB at NO
25. Randy Moss, NE at MIA
26. *Mark Bradley, KC vs. BUF
27. Justin Gage, TEN vs. NYJ
28. *Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ at TEN
NOTE: Catch of the Year at New England.
29. Bernard Berrian, MIN at JAC
30. *Laveranues Coles, NYJ at TEN
31. Vincent Jackson, SD vs. IND
32. Chris Chambers, SD vs. IND
33. *Derrick Mason, BAL vs. PHI
NOTE: No work on Wednesday (shoulder).
34. DeSean Jackson, PHI at BAL
35. Lance Moore, NO vs. GB
36. Santonio Holmes, PIT vs. CIN
37. Deion Branch, SEA vs. WAS
38. Roy Williams, DAL vs. SF
39. Marvin Harrison, IND at SD
NOTE: Worth a sleeper look this week.
40. Torry Holt, STL vs. CHI
41. Steve Breaston, ARI vs. NYG
42. Anthony Gonzalez, IND at SD
43. Kevin Curtis, PHI at BAL
NOTE: Leaves plays on the field every week.
44. Ted Ginn, MIA vs. NE
45. Greg Camarillo, MIA vs. NE
46. Bobby Engram, SEA vs. WAS
47. *Matt Jones, JAC vs. MIN
48. Devin Hester, CHI at STL
49. Jabar Gaffney, NE at MIA
NOTE: Cassel looks his way often.
50. Chad Johnson, CIN at PIT
51. Muhsin Muhammad, CAR at ATL
52. Michael Jenkins, ATL vs. CAR
53. Jason Hill, SF at DAL
54. Nate Washington, PIT vs. CIN
55. Bryant Johnson, SF at DAL
NOTE: Needed with others hurt.
56. *Antwaan Randle El, WAS at SEA
57. Mark Clayton, BAL vs. PHI
58. Steve Smith, NYG at ARI
59. Rashied Davis, CHI at STL
60. Patrick Crayton, DAL vs. SF
61. Roscoe Parrish, BUF at KC
62. Ronald Curry, OAK at DEN
NOTE: Finally did something last week.
63. Amani Toomer, NYG at ARI
64. Brandon Jones, TEN vs. NYJ
65. Isaac Bruce, SF at DAL
66. Hank Baskett, PHI at BAL
NOTE: Why isn't he playing more?
67. Shaun McDonald, DET vs. TB
68. Mike Walker, JAC vs. MIN
69. *Koren Robinson, SEA vs. WAS
70. Justin McCareins, TEN vs. NYJ
71. Sidney Rice, MIN at JAC
72. Jordy Nelson, GB at NO
73. Brandon Stokley, DEN vs. OAK
74. *Bobby Wade, MIN at JAC
75. Malcom Floyd, SD vs. IND
NOTE: A good sleeper for 2009 or 2010.
76. Donte' Stallworth, CLE vs. HOU
77. Devery Henderson, NO vs. GB
78. Ike Hilliard, TB at DET
79. James Jones, GB at NO
80. Jerry Porter, JAC vs. MIN
81. Steve Johnson, BUF at KC
82. Joey Galloway, TB at DET
83. *Chaz Schilens, OAK at DEN
84. Johnnie Lee Higgins, OAK at DEN
85. Chansi Stuckey, NYJ at TEN
86. Davone Bess, MIA vs. NE
87. *Mike Furrey, DET vs. TB
88. Reggie Brown, PHI at BAL
89. Jerheme Urban, ARI vs. NYG
90. *Brandon Lloyd, CHI at STL
91. Reggie Williams, JAC vs. MIN
92. Josh Cribbs, CLE vs. HOU
NOTE: Special-teams ace getting more offensive packages.
93. Marty Booker, CHI at STL
94. David Anderson, HOU at CLE
95. Jason Avant, PHI at BAL
96. D.J. Hackett, CAR at ATL
97. Syndric Steptoe, CLE vs. HOU
98. James Hardy, BUF at KC

Tight End
1. *Tony Gonzalez, KC vs. BUF
2. *Kellen Winslow, CLE vs. HOU
NOTE: Check the shoulder before you commit.
3. Antonio Gates, SD vs. IND
4. Chris Cooley, WAS at SEA
5. Dallas Clark, IND at SD
6. *Jason Witten, DAL vs. SF
7. Bo Scaife, TEN vs. NYJ
8. Dustin Keller, NYJ at TEN
NOTE: Impossible to ignore now.
9. Owen Daniels, HOU at CLE
10. *Tony Scheffler, DEN vs. OAK
NOTE: Full practice on Wednesday.
11. John Carlson, SEA vs. WAS
12. Greg Olsen, CHI at STL
13. Zach Miller, OAK at DEN
14. Jerramy Stevens, TB at DET
NOTE: Matchup play if you're desperate.
15. Jeremy Shockey, NO vs. GB
16. Vernon Davis, SF at DAL
17. Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN at JAC
18. *Heath Miller, PIT vs. CIN
NOTE: Expected to go Thursday.
19. Marcedes Lewis, JAC vs. MIN
20. Todd Heap, BAL vs. PHI
21. Kevin Boss, NYG at ARI
22. L.J. Smith, PHI at BAL
23. Donald Lee, GB at NO
24. Anthony Fasano, MIA vs. NE
25. Ben Watson, NE at MIA
26. Robert Royal, BUF at KC
27. Billy Miller, NO vs. GB
28. Steve Heiden, CLE vs. HOU
29. Brent Celek, PHI at BAL
30. Daniel Graham, DEN vs. OAK
31. Desmond Clark, CHI at STL
32. Matt Spaeth, PIT vs. CIN
33. Michael Gaines, DET vs. TB
34. Nate Jackson, DEN vs. OAK
35. Alge Crumpler, TEN vs. NYJ

Kicker
1. Matt Bryant, TB at DET
NOTE: Helped by stalling offense.
2. Nick Folk, DAL vs. SF
3. Phil Dawson, CLE vs. HOU
4. Robbie Gould, CHI at STL
5. Matt Prater, DEN vs. OAK
6. Mason Crosby, GB at NO
NOTE: Major leg, and an indoor assignment.
7. Rob Bironas, TEN vs. NYJ
8. Jeff Reed, PIT vs. CIN
9. Lawrence Tynes, NYG at ARI
10. Nate Kaeding, SD vs. IND
11. Rian Lindell, BUF at KC
12. Stephen Gostkowski, NE at MIA
13. Garrett Hartley, NO vs. GB
14. Kris Brown, HOU at CLE
15. Neil Rackers, ARI vs. NYG
16. Jason Elam, ATL vs. CAR
17. Ryan Longwell, MIN at JAC
18. Josh Scobee, JAC vs. MIN
19. David Akers, PHI at BAL
NOTE: Hard to fully trust this offense at moment.
20. Shaun Suisham, WAS at SEA
21. Matt Stover, BAL vs. PHI
22. Adam Vinatieri, IND at SD
23. Jay Feely, NYJ at TEN
24. Dan Carpenter, MIA vs. NE
25. Connor Barth, KC vs. BUF
26. John Kasay, CAR at ATL
27. Olindo Mare, SEA vs. WAS
28. Joe Nedney, SF at DAL
29. Josh Brown, STL vs. CHI
30. Jason Hanson, DET vs. TB
31. Sebastian Janikowski, OAK at DEN
32. Shayne Graham, CIN at PIT

Defense
1. Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati
NOTE: Another tee-off game at home.
2. Tampa Bay at Detroit
3. Philadelphia at Baltimore
NOTE: Jim Johnson against rookie quarterback.
4. Baltimore vs. Philadelphia
5. Tennessee vs. New York Jets
NOTE: Unit has slumped a little of late.
6. New York Giants at Arizona
7. Dallas vs. San Francisco
8. Chicago at St. Louis
9. Carolina at Atlanta
10. Atlanta vs. Carolina
11. Green Bay at New Orleans
NOTE: Runback luck can't continue forever.
12. Miami vs. New England
13. Minnesota at Jacksonville
14. New York Jets at Tennessee
15. New England at Miami
NOTE: Belichick won't get fooled again.
16. Buffalo at Kansas City
NOTE: At least the special teams are legit.
17. Washington at Seattle
18. Denver vs. Oakland
19. Kansas City vs. Buffalo
20. New Orleans vs. Green Bay
21. Indianapolis at San Diego
22. Seattle vs. Washington
23. Jacksonville vs. Minnesota
24. Cleveland vs. Houston
25. San Francisco at Dallas
26. Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
27. Arizona vs. New York Giants
NOTE: This is the best offensive line they'll face.
28. Houston at Cleveland
29. Oakland at Denver
30. San Diego vs. Indianapolis
31. St. Louis vs. Chicago
32. Detroit vs. Tampa Bay

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